The brief "springtime" for the dollar cannot withstand the long "bearish path"! Hedge funds warn that tariff policies will trigger a wave of dollar selling.
The founder of Exante Data believes that the recent rebound of the dollar is just a fleeting moment, and the long-lasting "dollar bear market" has only just begun, mainly due to a series of chaotic tariff policies aimed at Global trade introduced by the Trump administration to reshape the USA economy and trade.
Peter Schiff Says Trade Truce Aside, The World Is 'Losing Confidence' In Dollar And In US Ability To Put 'Fiscal House In Order'
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US Bonds Rise as Soft Inflation Backs Bets on Two 2025 Fed Rate Cuts
Daily Roundup of Key US Economic Data for May 13
Redbook US Same-Store Sales Slow in Week Ended May 10
Stocks Down Pre-Bell as Traders Await Key Inflation Report
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Asian Stocks Rally As US-China Trade War Eases, US Dollar Holds Gains
The China-US tariffs have "broken the ice"; Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve's first rate cut to be delayed until December.
Goldman Sachs currently expects the Federal Reserve to make its first rate cut in December, and it has adjusted the peak of the core PCE inflation path to 3.6%.
Stocks Cheered Tariff Relief. Economic Growth Still Hangs in the Balance. -- Barrons.com
Federal Reserve Watch for May 12: Tariffs Effects Could Be 'Significant,' Kugler Says
US Treasury April Budget Slightly Larger Than Expected, Wider Than Year Ago
Short-End U.S. Treasurys Lead Rise in Yields -- Market Talk
Treasury Yields Soar as U.S. and China Agree to Slash Tariffs
A major reversal in expectations for the bond market! Options Trading traders are increasing bets on the possibility that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at all this year.
Options traders are aggressively establishing hedge positions to guard against the risk that the Federal Reserve may not ease MMF this year, with one increasingly growing position predicting that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in 2025.
Trump's "major concern": the stock market has returned, but the Bonds have not.
The S&P 500 Index has returned to the level before the tariff shock in April, but the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond is still above the average level of 4.156% before the tariff announcement in April. Uncertainties such as tariff policy, fiscal outlook, and the White House's criticism of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy have intensified pressure in the bond market.
The USA Congressional Budget Office is "worried": the turmoil in tariffs will weaken the attractiveness of American Assets.
① The Director of the USA Congressional Budget Office (CBO), PHILLIP MM US$D Swagel, warned that the turmoil on Wall Street triggered by the Trump trade war could become a "critical point" that alters foreign investors' willingness to Hold USA Assets; ② He stated, "We are working to assess whether Global investors will develop lasting hesitation when examining the USA in the future."
Evercore ISI: The bear market in the U.S. stock market has ended, and a "marathon-style" bull market is expected under the shadow of tariffs.
The investment bank Evercore ISI pointed out that the latest market rebound marks the end of the bear market in 2025, but unlike in the past, this bull market will not accompany sharp rises, but will instead show a slow and volatile advance.
Tariff "stirring" intensifies the differentiation of U.S. bond yields, making it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates!
Short-term Treasury yield has decreased due to the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, however, the long-term Treasury yield, which is a key benchmark for economic financing costs, has instead risen. This suggests that even if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, long-term borrowing costs may remain high, weakening the effectiveness of rate cuts in stimulating the economy and increasing the difficulty of achieving a soft landing.