The USA experiences its first decline in labor productivity in three years, with soaring labor costs sounding the alarm for inflation.
In the first quarter, USA's labor productivity experienced its first decline in nearly three years due to a decrease in economic output, interrupting the previous trend of efficiency improvements that helped alleviate inflationary pressures on employment costs.
Trump criticizes the Federal Reserve again for not lowering interest rates, but this time did not call for firing Powell.
① The Federal Reserve announces that it will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.50%, marking the third consecutive decision to keep rates unchanged; ② Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on social media, stating that he is "too late" and "clueless," but added that he "still really likes him."
Jobless Claims Fall in Latest Week, With No Sign of Recession or Layoffs
As holiday factors diminish, the number of initial unemployment claims in the USA has returned to a low level.
After a short-term surge during the spring holiday and Easter at the end of April, the number of initial unemployment claims in the USA showed a declining trend last week.
Q1 US Nonfarm Productivity Falls as Expected, Unit Labor Costs Jump
U.S. Productivity, Secret Sauce of Economy, Falls for First Time in Almost Three Years
U.S. Stock Market Outlook | All three Equity Index futures are up, Trump will announce a trade agreement with the United Kingdom.
On May 8th (Thursday) during Pre-Market Trading, all three major Equity Index futures in the US rose.
Powell's stance of "not rushing to cut interest rates" has triggered a rise in U.S. Treasury yields as the market reassesses the Federal Reserve's policy path.
After Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that there would be no hasty reduction of borrowing costs, traders reduced their bets on Fed interest rate cuts, leading to an increase in US Treasury yields on Thursday.
US Dollar Rises Ahead of US-UK Trade Deal and Post-Fed Stagflation Fears
Market Talk Roundup: Fed Keeps Rates on Hold, Signals No Hurry for Rate Cut
Outcome of Trade Talks Is Key For Fed, Dollar Outlook -- Market Talk
Fed's Wait and See Stance Could Persist Through to September
Fed Meeting Provides Limited Fodder for Bond Investors -- Market Talk
U.S. Fed Likely to Delay Rate Cuts Amid Tariff Risks -- Market Talk
Fed Had to Show It Can't Be Bullied Into Cutting -- Market Talk
China Galaxy Securities: The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged as expected in May, and a rate cut may require a longer wait.
Due to the lack of economic outlook and dot plot in the May meeting, the information provided is limited, and the Federal Reserve is still inclined to a "data-dependent" approach in the short term, which also means that a rate cut is unlikely to occur in the first half of the year.
The New Bond King: Inflation in the USA may reach 4% by the end of the year, but the Federal Reserve may be forced to cut interest rates, and even initiate YCC.
The new bond king warns that given the current situation, by the end of this year, the inflation rate in the USA will most likely exceed 4%. In a high-inflation environment, the Federal Reserve may not reduce interest rates, as this could lead to greater trouble in the long term. However, high interest rates may result in external shocks, and due to certain liquidity issues, the Federal Reserve may ultimately lower interest rates and even initiate YCC.
Daxin Bank: Maintains a neutral rating on US stocks and expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates as early as July or September.
The Federal Reserve remains inactive once again.
Fed Could Start Rate Cuts in September -- Market Talk
EUR/USD Faces Downside Pressure Amid Weak Eurozone Data, Renewed US Dollar Demand