JPMorgan traders "draw the line": U.S. stocks first break 6000, then hit a new low!
JPMorgan expects that, driven by factors such as the activation of CTA strategy and accelerated Share Buybacks, the S&P 500 Index will first challenge the 6000-point mark. However, afterwards, if investors hold a pessimistic view on the mid-term outlook under high tariffs, the market may retest low levels. JPMorgan agrees with the current widespread view of an economic recession and anticipates a significant decline in hard data such as non-farm employment and retail sales in the next 1-2 months.
Deutsche Bank: The sell-off of USA Assets has been excessive.
Deutsche Bank pointed out that at the beginning of April, the USA market experienced significant volatility, but the panic regarding the dollar, USA Consumer data, and overall confidence in USA Assets may be exaggerated. From a relative valuation perspective, some cyclical USA Consumer stocks may begin to show investment attractiveness. Although policy volatility may persist, the narrative of "selling dollar Assets" may have reached its peak.
The New Taiwan dollar has surged, life insurance has become a major risk, and there is a large-scale mismatch of dollar Assets.
The life insurance industry in Taiwan, China, has long invested a large amount of Assets in US Bonds, and in order to maintain the yield, it only partially hedges its continuously expanding Forex risk exposure, effectively betting its solvency on the New Taiwan Dollar remaining weak against the US Dollar. As the New Taiwan Dollar surges, life insurance companies in Taiwan, China, are rushed to reduce or hedge their dollar exposure.
CBO Director: Still expects the USA debt ceiling "X day" to arrive at the end of summer.
When asked about the potential "X-Date", PHILLIP MM US$D indicated that it is still expected to occur in late summer.
Cantor Fitzgerald Issues Stark Warning on Equities Amid Mounting Economic Risks
Treasury Yields, Dollar Boosted by Stronger-Than-Expected Services PMI -- Market Talk
The most profitable investment Buffett made in his life came from the "changes" in the last ten years of his career.
Buffett stated that the wealth created for Berkshire by Apple's CEO Cook far exceeds his own. Previously, Buffett had consistently avoided technology stocks until he made an exception and invested in Apple in 2016, resulting in significant returns for Berkshire.
Japan's $1T U.S. Treasury Holdings Could Be a Bargaining Chip in Trade Talks
Two-year Treasury Yields Signaling Fed Should Cut Rates - Treasury Secretary Bessent
May's Must-See Financial Events: Apple & Nvidia Earnings, Berkshire Meeting, Interest Rate Decision, and More
Trump has criticized Powell again, this time without naming him.
A week after claiming he had no intention of firing Powell, Trump again publicly criticized the Federal Reserve, stating, "We have a Federal Reserve that is not performing well," and believes he understands interest rates "better than he does."
US Equity Indexes Rise, Treasury Yields Retreat Amid Fears of Tariffs Impact
Calmer Waters for Bonds to Draw Investors Back -- Market Talk
Apollo Warns of Potential Labor Market Weakness Ahead of Friday Payrolls Report
Market Dislocations in U.S. Treasurys Seen Largely Healed -- Market Talk
A JPMorgan survey indicates that the S&P 500 Index has peaked this year, but investors remain bullish on the Magnificent 7.
① A JPMorgan survey shows that 93% of investors believe the S&P 500 Index will hover around 6000 points or lower in the next 12 months, with 40% expecting it to remain within the 5000-5500 points Range; ② Respondents unanimously believe that trade wars and tariff uncertainties will trigger economic consequences, with 61% expecting the USA economy to face stagflation in the next 12 months.
Market Update | Most Autos stocks rose, NIO increased by over 5%, Li Auto grew by 2%, and Trump plans measures to mitigate the impact of car tariffs.
According to market news, President Trump of the USA will announce measures on Tuesday (April 29) to mitigate the impact of auto tariffs.
The sell-off is not over yet! USA Assets are still being "disdained" by overseas investors…
① According to data provided by Deutsche Bank, despite the market recovering over the past week, foreign investors' willingness to invest in USA assets continues to decline; ② Deutsche Bank's Forex research director George Saravelos believes that the recent data on USA capital flows is concerning.
"Debt ceiling" causes trouble! The U.S. Treasury Department's borrowing expectations for Q2 increase threefold, excluding the impact, borrowing decreases instead of increasing.
The U.S. Treasury announced on Monday that the estimated net borrowing for the second quarter is 391 billion dollars higher than expected in February, due to Congress not yet raising the federal debt ceiling, and the initial cash reserves at the beginning of the second quarter being far lower than previously anticipated. The Treasury stated that if the cash balance at the beginning of the season is not taken into account, the estimated borrowing for the second quarter is actually 53 billion dollars lower than the forecast made in February. Some analysts believe this is because DOGE is indeed having an effect, improving the fiscal situation and reducing financing demand.
Vanguard Revises U.S. Market Outlook Amid Tariff Uncertainty