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Space Dust : Good Day
Sir,
I have a weird idea that someone of your stature may be able to shed light on, and provide some sort of navigation buoy in this deep, thick mist we are in.
Is there some sort of way to conceptualize or visualize how inverse/short ETFS have, in a very positive way, possibly skewed downturns:
1. under the surface was worse once these are factored out.
2. a metric to know if we are in the calm, eye of the storm, or what
3. In the 'old days' of corrections, money just EVAPORATED, noone was really buying as much so this led to bigger losses.
4. Now, retail piles into short ETFs so in a way, that NASDAQ only went down 15% instead of typically 30%. Money into the markets, as a ballast against the selling.
5. If this hair brained idea held water, then human nature needs to know. Many would feel differently and some would be more at ease, that a "huge" loss has passed over. Clear skies ahead .
meaning, instead of a 25% drawdown post tariff. it was more like 37% had retail not piled into inverse ETFs.
Many would feel less skittish maybe if some type of " without inverse " overlay was applied to charts?
as a recovering contrarian bottom fisherman like me, at least.
Michael McCarthy CEO OP Space Dust : Fascinating idea. Certainly could be a contributor. The biggest market moves are due to surprise - a sudden change in the outlook. Part of that has to do with underlying "facts", and part of it is due to the interpretation of those facts. This may mean that the availability of short instruments has more participants considering the downside, meaning downside surprises have less impact and are therefore shallower.